Expenditure on age and service pensions is projected to fall from about 2.3% of GDP in 2022–23 to 2% in the early 2060s.
The intergenerational report puts the number of people 65 and over at about nine million by the early 2060s – up from nearly 4.4 million in the 2021 census.
But a smaller share of them will receive the pension or another income support, falling by about 15 percentage points by 2062–63.